Články týdne – 24. června

Dnes jsem vybral sérii citátů věnovaných zlatu. Z článků jsem vybral z mého pohledu jen to nejzajímavější (co bych sám archivoval), a tak uvádím výhradně citáty a ne žádné odkazy.

Jim Rickards:

„It is funny how there are a certain number of people whom I would consider as true gold experts. But most people on Wall Street, for example, may have some analytical skills, but they are not real experts in gold. They seem to go from trend to trend. One month we see them talking about tech stocks. The next month they are talking about corn or ethanol. And the month after that they are talking about gold. Those people tend to flip from topic and topic. They use analytical techniques but are not really prepared to understand that much about gold. Gold is definitely not in a bubble. Here is why. First, the trade is very uncrowded. I talk to large institutional investors all the time. They have zero allocation in gold or very small, maybe 1% or 1.5%. You look at these portfolios and they have 50% stocks, 40% bonds, the rest hedge funds. To me Gold is the most under-allocated asset in the world. If gold would simply go up from 1% to 2% in portfolios, there is not enough gold in the world anywhere near current market prices to support that shift. There is an enormous potential to go up just on a extremely modest allocation in the direction of gold.“

John Embry:

„This is going to be the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. This is going to be a seismic event. The action of the policy makers, the way they are conducting themselves right now, suggests to me that they are on the edge of panic. One must give the manipulators on the other side credit. They somehow have a good percentage of the populace worried about this bubble aspect which is completely false. Gold and silver are the furthest thing from a bubble. What is in a bubble is US bonds.“

„That is why it is easy to project massive moves in gold and silver. Because there will be a point when the populace panics on the paper currencies. When that happens, you are not going to believe the prices for gold and silver. The demand for gold on a worldwide basis is tremendous. I am getting some of this from a person who deals with a lot of clients internationally. She is extremely bullish because of what she sees on the demand side and where it is coming from. This correction that has been going on since the end of April is strictly a paper manipulated event. It is going to end the same way they all do, with the price rocketing out to new highs. If gold is going to $1800, silver is going a lot higher than $50“

Rick Rule:

„James Turk has an interesting point of view, because he sees Supply & Demand for silver on a real-time basis. So of course I would defer to him on whether or not we are at a bottom. The interesting thing about Silver is that it does not respond to fundamentals very well in the sense that most silver that is produced, is produced as an adjunct to mining other metals. What you are seeing is a slight increase in pure silver supplies as a consequence of the high price bringing production in place. At the same time you are seeing capital constraints in the base metals industry, constraining the byproduct supply of silver. Investment demand for silver has been extraordinarily robust. Both James Turk and Sprott Money have indicated that on a dollar for dollar basis, demand for silver bullion is outpacing demand for gold bullion. It suggests that the silver demand relative to gold demand is extraordinary. And ironically as a consequence of fabrication, silver supplies are lower than gold supplies with demand much higher. That would seem to be supportive of a higher silver price to me.“

John Hathaway

„There is no foundation whatsoever for solid robust economic growth, and that is the realization the markets are coming to. We are past the point of no return. The vast majority of investors think that somehow we can restore fiscal sanity to the federal budgeting process, that it can be done democratically, but I kind of doubt that. We have negative interest rates today, negative real rates of around 2.0%, or 2.5%. If we did have a Volcker moment to restore integrity to the currency, we would have to raise real rates to something like 3% to make it easy. So negative 3% to positive 3% means 6% nominal times $14 trillion in debt, which is $700 or $800 billion on top of the federal deficit that is already $1.6 trillion. Those are the numbers that tell you that we[as a nation] are basically bankrupt. That is why  we are past the point of no return. [To return to the Gold Standard,] the Gold price would have to be much higher. You have to make paper preferable to gold. In this climate that means in a way [the banking officials] would have to bid for all of the gold, and get people to trade in their gold for paper. The market says they cannot get it at $1500. Maybe they will try $2000 or $3000. The reality is unless that bid for gold is backed by credible measures to restore integrity to government finances, the real number is going to be what we talked about earlier, something in the five digits.“

Jim Sinclair

„Where gold is concerned, you are dealing with the condition of the international banks, with the balance sheets of the financial entities of the world. So the potential right now, right here, right at this point for an error in judgment that would set off a loss of confidence is present, clear and in all probability something that we are going to be facing well into the summer months. The problem is so serious, the problem is so present time, the problem is so real that it has inherent in it the probability that the economy is not going to have a significant recovery for more than a decade.“

„Let’s just assume for a moment that QE is in fact limited to June 30th. And let’s assume for a moment that the central bank of the United States would take a conservative restrictive approach towards monetary policy. I would suggest to you that the stock market would peel off 4000 points so fast you would get wind burns. I suggest that if anything like that happened exposing the balance sheets of the financial institutions, that you would have to return to QE with a vengeance, unparalleled, unprecedented in history. [The stock market decline] is giving them a little bit of a preview of what would happen if in fact they curtail QE and do not enter into a QE3 by whatever name they choose to call it. We are in a situation right now where if confidence is to be lost, be it by the equity market taking an outrageous header, then the price of Gold will not only go to $1650, $3000, $5000, but has the possibility of gong into five figures based on just what we have here and now. That is what you need to understand. That is why if you let go of any of your quality gold shares, if you let go of your gold, if you let go of your coins, you are out of your mind.“