Dnes se budu věnovat výplachu cen drahých kovů. Komentářů bylo velké množství, tentokráte uvádím přímo vybrané citáty. Snažil jsem se je vybrat tak, aby představovaly různé úhly pohledu na věc.
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“There is no other way to put gold’s recent sell-off: nasty,” said Joni Teves, precious metals strategist at UBS in London, adding that gold would have to work to “rebuild trust” among investors.
Tom Kendall, precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse said “Once again gold investors are being reminded that the metal is not a very effective hedge against broad-based risk-off moves in the commodity markets.”
Q: Some people are saying the bear is here to stay, and it’s time to sell everything gold-related and look for greener pastures elsewhere. Others are saying the is the buying opportunity of the decade, and it’s time to go „all in.“ What do you think?
Doug: I’d say it was neither. It could be that just as in 2008, when gold went down a lot at just the time you might think everyone would be panicking into it. But a lot of people had to sell their gold to meet their other obligations that were denominated in various paper currencies. That may be happening at this very moment in Cyprus. There are conflicting reports, but they may end up being forced to sell something on the order of half a billion euros‘ worth of gold – and if that happens to them, it could happen to other much larger countries that are in trouble, like Greece, Italy, Spain… or France.
Dennis Gartman: jaká byla pravděpodobnost takového výplachu? Přesto k němu došlo – klasická černá labuť.
„Concerning gold, let’s note firstly something sent to us by our old friend John Brimelow, who had a most interesting piece in his commentary this morning regarding the violence of the recent price changes. He noted a piece written by Russell Rhoads, CFA of the CBOE Option Institute, who wrote the following:
„‚Friday was a 4.88 standard deviation move in the price of gold. For simplicity’s sake let’s call it a five standard deviation move. Statistically we get a five standard deviation move approximately once every 4,776 years. So we should not expect another move like this out of the price of gold until May 17, 6789. … Currently the two-day price change in GLD is $16.65, which can be converted to just over eight standard deviations. I wanted to share what this comes to, but the table I use only goes up to seven standard deviations. Let’s just say the sun is expected to burn out first.'“
Gartman continues: „We shall confidently say that we will never, ever see a day such as we saw yesterday in the gold market in our lifetime again. It will not happen. The sun will indeed burn out before we see anything such as that again. Nor shall we ever want to see anything such as that again. We can reasonably deal with deviations from the norm of 2 or 3 or perhaps even 4, but 8+ standard deviations is beyond our ken or that of anyone else anywhere. Yesterday’s price action will go down in history as an aberration of truly historic proportions.
„We judge the violence of the market’s movements by the numbers of requests for interviews made of us, for the correlation between high numbers of such requests is nearly 1:1 with peaks and valleys of various markets. A large number of requests made of us is four or five a day; a truly large number is eight. Yesterday we had twelve, and we’ve agreed to give several more today that we could not fit into our schedule yesterday. This befits an 8+ standard deviation day.“
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